Data Dive, Part 1: Trading The 2016 Election

How has investing changed after the election? In our first Data Dive of 2017, we use transaction data to find out.

Since Trump’s win in the 2016 election, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% and hit multiple all-time highs. The market may be on an upswing, but how has investor behavior changed? To answer this question, we’re taking a look at our transaction data, comparing behavioral patterns from the month before the election with those exhibited in the weeks after the news.

Here are some of our findings:

Order Size.pngBuy Low, Sell High?

Looks like some investors are locking in their gains after the Trump bump. Since the election, our average sell order size has shot up by 50% while the average buy order size dropped by 11%. It looks like investors have been hoarding cash since the election, maybe waiting for an opportunity to buy at a discount if the markets get shaky.

Peak Hours.pngLazy Mondays

Before the election, Monday mornings were red hot on the trading floor. Post-election, traders started waiting until the end of the trading day to hit confirm – maybe holding out until volatility settles around 2-3pm.

It appears traders continued taking their sweet time after Monday into the middle of the week. While Tuesday was the hottest day of trading before the election, Wednesday appears to have regained its title as “hump” day, claiming the highest average volumes in the weeks following the election.

Peak Trading Days.png

 

Draining the Swamp

tech-inflowsWhatever your political views, it’s fascinating to see how a new administration can affect people’s’ portfolios. For example, our data suggests that investors are “draining” tech stocks from their portfolios after the election. Despite a few high-profile endorsements, Trump’s win is widely considered a net loss for the tech industry, which relies on visas for highly skilled immigrants to power innovation. As a result, investing in tech companies means is riskier in 2017, and investor appetite for the sector has cooled off.

A Golden Opportunity

Gold Outflows.pngGold’s price tumbled 12% in the last weeks of 2016, but it looks like retail investors are staying put and holding onto the precious metal. While inflows remained relatively steady, our Gold-related outflows plummeted after the election. Given Trump’s unpredictability, this makes sense; Gold is seen as a safe-haven investment, and its value often increases during times of uncertainty.

Got a hypothesis for us? Interested in additional info? Email us or Tweet your data requests @TradingTicket for our next installment of the Data Dive series!

About the Author

James Barrios is a Management Science & Engineering Masters Candidate at Stanford University.  James will be investigating patterns, trends, and other useful data extractions over the coming months.  For this piece, James compared “Buy” and “Sell” orders placed before and after the November election.

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